GOP hopes Chambliss will be part of firewall

ATLANTA -- The chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts Sen. Saxby Chambliss will be part of the firewall the party wants to build against Democratic control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.

Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., set a floor on the number of seats the party must control, 41.

"The number that we get to is really, really important in the U.S. Senate," he said. "That's one of the reasons Saxby absolutely must hold his seat."

Democrats now have 49 seats with two independents who vote with them. Republicans hold 49 now, with 23 up for re-election this year, and five GOP senators retiring, giving away the incumbent advantage. Democrats only have to defend 12 seats this year.

An eight-seat loss would be a very bad year for any party, even the party holding the White House at the end of a second term when voters typically hunger for change. So, it's surprisingly for a party leader to speak in such frank terms about major losses.

Why would the number of seats matter if it's anything less than 51 and taking the majority, a circumstance Ensign describes as unlikely? By holding at least 41, the GOP would prevent the majority party from the 60 votes required to end filibusters and bring an unpopular bill to a vote on the floor through the cloture procedure.

"With 41 votes in the U.S. Senate, you can, 1) block bad legislation, and 2) you can make the majority respect the minority's rights, and you can help craft good legislation," Ensign said. "... If the Democrats were able to get to 60 votes -- literally even if they get to 57-58 votes because they always seem to pick off a couple or three Republicans on a lot of votes -- and if they win the White House ... they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."

Ensign considers Chambliss a strong favorite to win re-election due to Georgia's Republican tilt, so strong in fact that the national party is counting on him to raise his own funds so the party can put its resources into closer races.

Betting against him are five Democrats, Dale Cardwell, Vernon Jones, Rand Knight, Josh Lanier and Jim Martin, all grappling for the nomination in the July 15 primary. They contend he's out of touch, a rubber stamp for the president and a pawn of special interests.

Chambliss said last week that he expects a tough contest no matter who the Democrats run against him. Plus, the impact of Barack Obama's candidacy will be hard to gauge.

"We don't have any idea what the Obama factor will be," Chambliss said.

Turnout will be high, Ensign said, but many of those added voters will show up to cast a ballot against Obama. He said he's seen polls in various states where having Obama at the top of the ticket helps Democrats and states where it hurts.

Republicans, though, are struggling when there's no one's name on the ballot but party labels, the so-called generic ballot. Ensign acknowledges the deficit but dodges a question about whether the GOP simply holds unpopular stances on pressing issues.

Instead, he blames rising gas and food prices, falling home prices, a war and mainly an extremely unpopular president, starting with the mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina recovery.

Recent good news in Iraq isn't getting through to the public, he said, so that isn't going to be a Republicans salvation.

Money won't be their salvation either this year.

Yet, being outspent by Democrats won't be fatal if Republicans have a good message and a sound strategy, he said, noting that he won his own Senate seat with less money than the incumbent he upset.
"It really matters more your message and how well you spend your money," he said, without elaborating on the contents of the message.

"The Democratic Senatorial (Campaign) Committee will be able to take more risks. They'll be able to take more shots in more places," he said. "So we'll have to target our money very carefully. What we won't do is we won't spend money in races that are going to win on their own, and we won't spend money on races that can't win."

That just leaves the races where the money could make a difference.

Ensign has an interesting perspective as a close friend with Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. He says Reid never expected Democrats to take the majority in the Senate during the last election.

Instead, in June of that year, Reid was predicting his party would lose a few seats, Ensign said.
So the chief strategist for Republican senators isn't pessimistic.

"It's kind of like a sporting event. You play the game because the outcome is not assured," he said.